Hi all, a lot of my short trades trade’s entered in April during the US tariff correction are now being closed weekly at quite large losses. Last week I was ‘malavogued’ and this week I’ve got a ‘shellacking’. I suppose that’s one of the disadvantages of trend following but overall over the last five years I can see that it does work. There will always be shocks to the system. All the main indices are now positive like the S&P500, DOW, Nasdaq and sectors like Financials(XLF) are now buys. 

On the main asset list my coffee position was eventually closed for a profit of 80.69% along with a short on Clean Tech(CTEC +37.76%).

Also Water(CGW), Future AI(ARTY), Rare Earths(REMX) and Robotics/Automation(ROBO) have bottomed out and should start new upward trends in the next few months. I still can’t ignore my losses this week the worst being in a short on Semiconductors(XSD -61.25%). No matter how well I have done it still hurts. At least I can enjoy my coffee in the morning a little more.

On the share front everything was going smoothly and my short positions in April are now being closed painfully. My best trade was in Estee Lauder(EL +33.79%) and worst was in Tokyo Electron(8035:TSE -68.17%).

This week I’m beginning to see shares involved in electrical switchgear and electrification like ABBN:SWX, Legrande(LR:PAR), Hitachi Energy(6501:TSE), Enel(ENEL:MIL) making gains. There seems to be funds slowly pushing especially in Europe into refurbishing electrical networks.  

So we have a new trend and its up. However unless the previous high of 6,148 on the S&P500 holds solidly this could all fall like a house of cards. You only know if something holds unless it’s tested and that hasn’t happened yet. The next month should let us know if this is a new start. I’m not confident. 

All my trades are below, Anyway enjoy your summer, regards, Pearse.

MSCI Large World Cap. Closed Trades

MSCI Large Cap Long Signals

MSCI Large Cap Short Signals

No short signals this week.

Main Asset List, Short positions are marked in red, long in blue, neutral in white.

Note:The above trades do not take into consideration dividends on shares or coupons on bonds. This is important because if you short a stock or bond the dividend will be taken from you. Therefore the safest strategy is never to short any instrument only buy an upwardly trending security and simply close your position when this ends. These trades are my view on the market and not me advising you to take any of these positions.  Closed positions have losses and profits listed in percentages. Mainly as a record to myself so I keep honest in evaluating my strategy.
The list of stocks analysed are from the MSCI Large Cap list as of 01/01/2025.